Draw No Bet vs Double Chance: What Is the Difference?

Draw No Bet and Double Chance both protect a football bet against one possible result, but they settle a draw differently. With Draw No Bet, the stake is refunded if the match finishes level. With Double Chance on a team or draw, the draw is a winning outcome.

Double Chance therefore provides more protection, but normally offers shorter odds. Draw No Bet offers a larger potential return because only a team victory produces a profit. Neither market is automatically better: the correct comparison depends on your estimated probabilities for the win, draw and defeat, and whether the available prices compensate for those outcomes.

Draw No Bet vs Double Chance at a Glance

The difference is concentrated entirely in the draw:

• Draw No Bet: the draw produces neither profit nor loss.
• Double Chance: the draw produces the same winning settlement as a victory by the selected team.

Because Double Chance turns two of the three match results into winners, it will usually carry a shorter price than Draw No Bet on the same team.

How Draw No Bet Works

Draw No Bet, usually shortened to DNB, allows you to back one team while treating the draw as a void result.

If you back Team A Draw No Bet:

• Team A wins: the bet wins.
• The match is drawn: the stake is returned.
• Team A loses: the bet loses.

For example, a £100 Draw No Bet wager at decimal odds of 1.80 produces:

• £180 total return and £80 profit if the team wins.
• A £100 refund if the match is drawn.
• A £100 loss if the team loses.

The important point is that the draw does not become a winning result. It merely stops the bet from losing. The complete mechanics are covered in GoalIQAI’s guide to Draw No Bet betting.

How Double Chance Works

Double Chance combines two of the three possible match results into one selection.

The three options are:

• 1X: the home team wins or the match is drawn.
• X2: the away team wins or the match is drawn.
• 12: either team wins, with only the draw producing a loss.

When comparing Double Chance with Draw No Bet, the relevant selections are normally 1X and X2. Both combine a particular team with the draw.

If you back Team A or Draw at odds of 1.45:

• Team A wins: the bet wins.
• The match is drawn: the bet wins.
• Team A loses: the bet loses.

A £100 stake at 1.45 therefore returns £145, including £45 profit, if either covered result occurs. GoalIQAI’s separate guide explains the full range of Double Chance markets.

The Main Difference: Refund or Winning Draw

Suppose Brighton play Aston Villa and you want to support Brighton without making the standard match-winner bet.

You could choose:

• Brighton Draw No Bet at 1.75.
• Brighton or Draw at 1.40.

If Brighton win, both selections win, but Draw No Bet delivers the larger profit.

If the match is drawn, the Draw No Bet stake is returned while the Double Chance selection wins.

If Aston Villa win, both selections lose.

The comparison is therefore not simply between a risky bet and a safe bet. You are deciding whether the shorter Double Chance price fairly compensates you for converting the draw from a refund into a winning result.

Draw No Bet vs Double Chance Returns

Consider £100 placed on the two Brighton selections above:

The Double Chance selection sacrifices £35 of potential profit if Brighton win in exchange for earning £40 if the match is drawn.

Whether that exchange is favourable depends on how likely you believe each result is. Looking only at the potential return or the number of protected outcomes is not enough.

Which Market Offers the Shorter Odds?

Double Chance on a team or draw will normally offer shorter odds than Draw No Bet on the same team.

This follows directly from the settlement structure:

• Draw No Bet makes money only when the selected team wins.
• Double Chance makes money when the team wins or the match is drawn.

A larger probability of winning must be reflected in a smaller potential return if the two markets are priced consistently.

This does not mean the shorter Double Chance price is automatically poor. Nor does the larger Draw No Bet price automatically provide better value. Odds must be compared with the probability of the outcomes they cover.

As the GoalIQAI guide to odds and implied probability explains, a higher chance of receiving a winning settlement is not the same as a better betting opportunity.

How to Compare the Fair Odds

The clearest comparison begins with independent probabilities for all three match results.

Suppose your estimates are:

• Team A win: 42%.
• Draw: 30%.
• Team A loss: 28%.

Fair Double Chance probability

Team A or Draw covers the first two outcomes:

42% + 30% = 72%

The corresponding fair decimal odds are:

1 ÷ 0.72 = 1.39

Fair Draw No Bet price

A Draw No Bet calculation must account for the draw being refunded rather than won or lost. The active outcomes are the 42% win probability and the 28% loss probability.

The fair DNB odds can be calculated as:

(win probability + loss probability) ÷ win probability

Using the example:

(0.42 + 0.28) ÷ 0.42 = 1.67

These figures suggest fair prices of approximately:

• 1.67 for Team A Draw No Bet.
• 1.39 for Team A or Draw.

If the bookmaker offers 1.60 and 1.35 respectively, both prices are below the bettor’s fair estimates. Neither would represent value under those assumptions.

If the offers were 1.72 and 1.35, Draw No Bet might be the only selection priced above the bettor’s fair odds. The more protective Double Chance market could still be the weaker option.

Why Comparing Raw Implied Probabilities Can Mislead

A Draw No Bet price of 1.70 has a raw implied probability of 58.8%, calculated as 1 divided by 1.70. However, it does not mean the bookmaker expects the team to win 58.8% of all matches.

The draw produces a refund, so the DNB price represents the team’s chance of winning relative to the two active win-or-lose outcomes. The draw probability has effectively been removed from the settlement calculation.

A Double Chance price, by contrast, directly covers the combined probability of two match outcomes.

This means a simple comparison such as “1.40 is more likely than 1.70” does not fully describe what is being purchased. The prices relate to different payoff structures.

Bookmakers also include a margin or overround. The quoted odds should therefore not be treated as pure probability estimates without adjusting for the other selections in the relevant market.

When Draw No Bet May Better Match Your View

Draw No Bet may be the more logical structure when your main analytical view is that one team has a stronger chance of winning than the market suggests.

For example, you may believe an away team is undervalued because:

• Its underlying performances are stronger than its recent results.
• It creates higher-quality chances than its opponent.
• Its defensive record has been distorted by unsustainable finishing.
• Relevant team news improves its win probability.
• The market has overreacted to a recent defeat.

You may still respect the possibility of a draw, particularly in a low-scoring match, but your edge is principally attached to the team winning.

Draw No Bet preserves more of the potential profit from that victory while returning the stake if the match finishes level.

It may also be worth comparing the DNB price with Asian Handicap 0, which normally has the same basic settlement. Different bookmakers or market formats can occasionally produce different prices. GoalIQAI’s Asian Handicap guide explains that relationship in more detail.

When Double Chance May Better Match Your View

Double Chance may fit better when your strongest conclusion is that one team is unlikely to lose, rather than that it is particularly likely to win.

For example, an underdog may:

• Defend effectively but create relatively few chances.
• Have a tactical structure capable of frustrating a favourite.
• Play in a competition where a draw suits both teams.
• Face an opponent with possession dominance but limited chance quality.
• Have a high estimated probability of drawing a low-scoring match.

In that situation, a substantial part of your analytical view may be attached to the draw. Double Chance turns that outcome into profit rather than merely returning the stake.

The price still has to be sufficient. “This team should avoid defeat” is not a complete betting case unless your estimated win-or-draw probability exceeds the break-even probability implied by the odds.

Does the Favourite or Underdog Matter?

Both markets can be used with favourites and underdogs, but the trade-off often looks different.

Backing a favourite

A favourite’s Double Chance price may be extremely short because its win and draw probabilities are already high. The additional protection can produce a small return relative to the amount risked if the favourite loses.

Draw No Bet may offer a larger return, but it can still be unattractive if the original match-winner price has already been shortened by strong market confidence.

Backing an underdog

An underdog Draw No Bet price can remain relatively large because the team’s chance of winning is limited. Double Chance may be considerably shorter if the draw probability forms a large part of the covered outcomes.

If your analysis mainly opposes the favourite, X2 or 1X may express that view more directly. If you believe the underdog has a genuinely underestimated chance of winning, Draw No Bet may retain more of the potential upside.

These are analytical tendencies, not rules. The market, price and estimated probabilities must be assessed for the specific fixture.

Is Double Chance Safer Than Draw No Bet?

Double Chance has a higher probability of producing a winning settlement because a draw generates profit instead of a refund. In that narrow sense, it offers greater outcome protection.

However, describing it simply as safer can conceal several risks:

• The shorter price increases the amount risked relative to the potential profit.
• A single defeat still loses the full stake.
• A high strike rate does not prove that the odds offer value.
• Repeatedly accepting prices below fair value creates an unfavourable long-term expectation.

Suppose a Double Chance selection is priced at 1.20. A £100 bet earns £20 if it wins but loses £100 if the uncovered outcome occurs. One loss removes the profit from five winners at that price.

This does not make odds of 1.20 inherently poor. It demonstrates why frequency of winning cannot be considered separately from the size of wins and losses.

Which Market Has Lower Variance?

Double Chance normally wins more frequently than Draw No Bet on the same team. Draw No Bet also includes refunded outcomes that do not change the bettor’s balance.

The effect on financial volatility depends on the complete distribution of wins, draws and losses, together with the two prices. It cannot be determined merely by counting how many outcomes are protected.

Double Chance may generate frequent small profits interrupted by a larger full-stake loss. Draw No Bet may produce fewer profitable results but larger profits when the team wins, with draws creating no change.

Our guide to variance in football betting explains why a higher win rate does not necessarily produce a more reliable or profitable strategy.

Draw No Bet or Double Chance: A Practical Decision Framework

1. Estimate all three match probabilities. Record separate probabilities for the home win, draw and away win.
2. Identify your actual analytical view. Decide whether you believe a team is more likely to win or merely less likely to lose than the market suggests.
3. Calculate fair prices. Treat the DNB refund correctly and combine the relevant probabilities for Double Chance.
4. Compare the available odds. Check multiple bookmakers and equivalent Asian Handicap markets where relevant.
5. Allow for margin. Do not treat the quoted prices as unbiased probability estimates.
6. Compare expected returns. Calculate what each possible match result would mean financially.
7. Select the market that contains the edge. More protection is useful only when the price fairly reflects its cost.
8. Decline both if necessary. A reasonable match opinion does not guarantee that either market offers value.

This follows the central principle of value betting: the preferred selection is not necessarily the one most likely to win, but the one whose available price exceeds an evidence-based estimate of its fair probability.

Common Draw No Bet vs Double Chance Mistakes

• Treating a Draw No Bet draw as a win: The stake is returned, but no profit is earned.
• Assuming every Double Chance bet includes the selected team and draw: The 12 option covers either team winning and loses if the match is drawn.
• Choosing the market with the highest strike rate: Winning more frequently does not guarantee a positive expected return.
• Ignoring the cost of protection: Double Chance normally offers shorter odds because the draw becomes a winning result.
• Comparing raw prices without settlement: DNB and Double Chance odds represent different payoff structures.
• Ignoring Asian Handicap 0: It may offer an alternative price for effectively the same settlement as Draw No Bet.
• Using the market to compensate for weak analysis: Additional protection cannot turn an inaccurate probability estimate into value.
• Believing one market is always better: The correct choice can change with the fixture, probabilities and prices.

Key Takeaways

• Draw No Bet refunds the stake if the match is drawn.
• Double Chance on a team or draw makes both covered outcomes winners.
• Both markets lose if the opposing team wins.
• Double Chance normally offers shorter odds because it provides greater draw protection.
• Draw No Bet retains more potential profit when the selected team wins.
• DNB may better express a view that a team is undervalued to win.
• Double Chance may better express a view that a team is unlikely to lose.
• Neither market is automatically safer in a financial or value-based sense.
• The correct comparison requires separate win, draw and loss probabilities.
• It can be rational to choose neither market when both available prices are below fair value.

Related Guides

• Draw No Bet Explained
• Double Chance Betting Explained
• Asian Handicap Betting Explained

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