England vs Costa Rica Prediction, Betting Tips and Analysis (10 June 2026)

England face Costa Rica in their final warm-up match before the 2026 FIFA World Cup and all eyes will be on Thomas Tuchel's side as they look to build momentum ahead of the tournament.

While England defeated New Zealand 1-0 in their previous friendly, the performance raised several questions. Despite registering 23 shots, England generated just 1.49 expected goals (xG), highlighting ongoing concerns around chance creation and attacking efficiency.

Costa Rica arrive in poor form having failed to win any of their last five matches and having conceded at least two goals in each of their last five international friendlies.

England vs Costa Rica Key Stats

• England have won seven of their last nine internationals.
• England's last five matches have all finished under 2.5 goals.
• Costa Rica are winless in five matches.
• Costa Rica have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last five friendlies.
• England generated just 1.49 xG against New Zealand despite 23 shots.

Betting Analysis

The market expects a comfortable England victory, but the underlying data suggests caution when backing a high-scoring outcome.

England continue to control possession and territory, however recent performances have lacked the attacking fluency expected from a side with their talent.

Tuchel is expected to field a team close to his preferred World Cup starting XI, making this an important tactical rehearsal rather than a purely experimental friendly.

Costa Rica have struggled against stronger opposition and appear unlikely to create many clear-cut opportunities.

As a result, the most attractive betting angle appears to be England to win combined with a relatively low total goals line.

Best Bet

England to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

England should have too much quality for Costa Rica but their recent attacking output suggests another controlled rather than explosive performance.

Projected Score

England 2-0 Costa Rica

England dominate possession, create enough chances to secure victory and keep a clean sheet against a Costa Rica side that has struggled offensively against stronger opponents.

GoalIQAI Verdict

At GoalIQAI we combine football statistics, expected goals data, betting markets and expert consensus to identify value opportunities.

The objective is not to predict every result correctly. The objective is to consistently make better decisions than the market expects over the long term.

If you're new to expected goals, read our guide to Expected Goals (xG) and how professional bettors use it to analyse football matches.