The Most Undervalued FPL Players for 2026/27: A Data-Driven Pre-Season Analysis

Finding value in Fantasy Premier League is not simply a matter of selecting the players who scored the most points last season.

The objective is to identify players whose likely contribution in 2026/27 may be greater than their current price or ownership suggests.

That requires several different questions:

• How many minutes is the player likely to receive?
• What do their expected goals and expected assists suggest?
• Has their tactical role changed?
• Do they take penalties, set-pieces or corners?
• How favourable are their opening fixtures?
• Has the FPL market already priced in the obvious upside?

This is closer to player recruitment or market analysis than conventional fantasy tipping. A good player is not automatically a good FPL asset. Value depends on what that player can reasonably be expected to produce relative to price, ownership and opportunity cost.

The analysis below uses official FPL prices, ownership and 2025/26 performance data available on 28 July 2026. Pre-season remains an uncertain period, so projected roles and availability should be reviewed again before the Gameweek 1 deadline.

What Does Undervalued Mean in FPL?

An undervalued FPL player is someone whose expected points are not fully reflected in their current price.

This is not exactly the same as points per million. Budget players often look efficient by that measure because the minimum player price creates an artificial floor. A team composed entirely of inexpensive, efficient players would also leave a large amount of the £100.0m budget unused.

The more useful question is what each player offers compared with the realistic alternatives at the same position and price.

A £9.5m midfielder can represent better value than a £5.5m midfielder if the more expensive player provides substantially higher expected points, regular captaincy potential and greater certainty of minutes.

Equally, a £4.5m defender who regularly starts can be valuable because the saving allows additional investment elsewhere.

GoalIQAI therefore considers four forms of FPL value:

• Price value: expected output relative to cost.
• Role value: a player benefiting from increased minutes, a new position or additional set-piece responsibility.
• Ownership value: a strong option being overlooked by most managers.
• Structural value: a cheaper player who makes a more productive overall squad possible.

1. Cole Palmer: The Premium Player Priced for Last Season

Club: Chelsea
Position: Midfielder
Price: £9.5m
Ownership: approximately 13%
GoalIQAI confidence: 7.5/10

Cole Palmer is the clearest example of a player whose price appears influenced by disappointing recent outcomes rather than only his longer-term ability.

Palmer produced 114 FPL points in 2025/26 after beginning the season at £10.5m. That was a substantial decline from his two previous 200-point campaigns and explains his £1.0m price reduction.

The underlying picture was less severe. Palmer recorded approximately 10.6 expected goals and 2.5 expected assists from 1,954 league minutes. His combined expected goal involvement was around 0.60 per 90 minutes, which remains a strong rate for a midfielder.

His 10 goals were broadly consistent with his xG. The larger disappointment was creative output: only two recorded assists despite generating more expected assists. FPL assists do not correspond perfectly with expected assists, but the gap suggests his final return may have understated some of his chance creation.

Chelsea also begin with Fulham, Brighton, Arsenal and Hull across the opening four Gameweeks. The Arsenal match is difficult, but three of the four fixtures provide potential attacking opportunity.

The arrival of Xabi Alonso creates tactical uncertainty, while Morgan Rogers adds further attacking competition. However, Chelsea have no European football in 2026/27 and Palmer did not play international tournament football during the summer. Those factors should reduce his early fatigue and rotation risk.

Why he may be undervalued: FPL has reduced his price after one disappointing campaign even though his underlying attacking involvement and longer record support a higher ceiling.

Key risks: Alonso’s tactical system is still unknown, Chelsea have added attacking competition and penalty responsibility must be confirmed during pre-season.

2. Alexander Isak: A £9.0m Route into Liverpool’s Attack

Club: Liverpool
Position: Forward
Price: £9.0m
Ownership: approximately 12%
GoalIQAI confidence: 7/10

Alexander Isak’s 2025/26 data cannot be interpreted like a normal full-season sample. Injury restricted him to eight league starts and 694 minutes, producing only 41 FPL points.

That lack of availability has contributed to a £9.0m starting price, £6.5m below Erling Haaland.

Isak’s stronger evidence comes from his final Newcastle season, when he scored 23 Premier League goals, provided six assists and accumulated 211 FPL points. That history demonstrates a ceiling not normally available at his current price.

The departure of Mohamed Salah and a long-term injury to Hugo Ekitike could substantially alter Isak’s opportunity. If he becomes Liverpool’s undisputed centre-forward and inherits penalties, his expected value changes immediately.

Liverpool face Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Ipswich and Fulham in their opening four matches. Three of those fixtures could support significant attacking output, although a new head coach and a reshaped attack create uncertainty about how quickly the team will settle.

Why he may be undervalued: his price reflects an injury-disrupted season, while his previous full campaign indicates genuine 200-point potential if fit and starting regularly.

Key risks: injury recurrence, uncertainty over penalties and adaptation to Andoni Iraola’s system.

3. Bukayo Saka: Underowned Rather Than Obviously Underpriced

Club: Arsenal
Position: Midfielder
Price: £9.5m
Ownership: approximately 11%
GoalIQAI confidence: 7/10

Bukayo Saka costs the same as Palmer and is not cheap in isolation. His potential inefficiency is found more clearly in ownership.

Saka accumulated 157 points despite being restricted to 25 starts and 2,218 minutes last season. He recorded approximately 7.6 xG and 7.2 expected assists, equivalent to 0.60 expected goal involvements per 90—the same underlying rate as Palmer.

That combination of goal threat, creativity, penalties and involvement in one of the league’s strongest teams provides several routes to points.

Arsenal also begin at home to promoted Coventry before matches against Aston Villa and Chelsea. The immediate fixture is attractive, although the schedule becomes more difficult afterwards.

Saka may not be the best permanent use of £9.5m if Arsenal’s attack remains evenly distributed. However, ownership close to 11% appears modest for a proven premium midfielder with strong underlying numbers and opening captaincy potential.

Why he may be undervalued: managers appear more attracted to Haaland, Bruno Fernandes and cheaper squad structures, leaving Saka relatively overlooked.

Key risks: Arsenal’s opening fixtures become harder after Gameweek 1, while last season’s reduced minutes underline some availability risk.

4. Dominic Calvert-Lewin: Proven Goal Threat at £6.0m

Club: Leeds United
Position: Forward
Price: £6.0m
Ownership: approximately 18%
GoalIQAI confidence: 7.5/10

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not a low-ownership differential, but he may still be one of the strongest price-value options.

He scored 14 goals from approximately 15.6 xG last season, suggesting that his return was supported by chance quality rather than unusually efficient finishing. He also produced around 0.55 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes.

Calvert-Lewin is Leeds’ first-choice penalty taker and costs only £6.0m. He finished sixth among forwards last season with 142 points, despite starting only 30 matches.

Leeds face Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Brighton, Newcastle and Crystal Palace across their first five Gameweeks. None is automatically easy, but Leeds avoid the previous season’s top seven throughout that run.

At £6.0m, Calvert-Lewin does not need to match a premium forward’s total. He needs to outperform the other budget forwards while releasing funds for stronger midfielders or defenders.

Why he may be undervalued: his penalty role, underlying goal threat and secure starting position are unusual at this price.

Key risks: his injury history remains relevant, and Leeds may create fewer chances if their attacking performance declines.

5. William Osula: High Upside but Minutes Must Be Confirmed

Club: Newcastle United
Position: Forward
Price: £6.0m
Ownership: approximately 2%
GoalIQAI confidence: 6/10

William Osula is one of the most interesting low-ownership options, but also one of the players most dependent on pre-season evidence.

Osula started only once during Newcastle’s opening 31 league matches last season. He then started all seven of their final fixtures and scored five goals during that period.

Across the season he recorded seven goals from approximately 4.3 xG in only 805 minutes. His 0.55 expected goal involvements per 90 was encouraging, although the sample is too small to project confidently over a full campaign.

Newcastle’s first two matches against Liverpool and Tottenham are challenging, but Bournemouth, Leeds, Hull and Coventry follow. If Osula begins as the central striker, that later run becomes attractive.

Why he may be undervalued: his price and ownership do not fully reflect the possibility that last season’s late promotion to the starting side becomes permanent.

Key risks: his role is not yet secure, the scoring sample is small and last season’s goals exceeded xG.

6. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall: Multiple Routes to Points

Club: Everton
Position: Midfielder
Price: £6.5m
Ownership: approximately 4%
GoalIQAI confidence: 6.5/10

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall produced 151 points from 30 starts last season, combining eight goals, seven assists, defensive contribution points and 18 bonus points.

His underlying attacking data was less impressive than the final returns. He recorded approximately 4.4 xG and 5.3 expected assists, suggesting that repeating eight goals may require either better shot generation or another spell of above-expected finishing.

However, FPL rewards more than goals and assists. Regular minutes, defensive work and bonus-point potential can create a reliable floor that purely attacking midfielders at the same price may lack.

Everton’s opening schedule includes Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Manchester United, Tottenham, Ipswich and Hull. The sequence is mixed rather than exceptional, but there are several playable fixtures.

Why he may be undervalued: he offers several scoring routes at £6.5m and is currently owned by relatively few managers.

Key risks: last season’s goal total exceeded xG and he may lack the attacking ceiling of similarly priced alternatives.

7. Anton Stach: A Balanced Midfield Enabler

Club: Leeds United
Position: Midfielder
Price: £6.0m
Ownership: approximately 2%
GoalIQAI confidence: 6/10

Anton Stach recorded five goals and six assists from 28 starts last season, finishing with 137 FPL points.

He also collected 20 defensive contribution points. That matters because it reduces his dependence on scoring or assisting in every match.

Stach’s attacking underlying numbers—approximately 2.9 xG and 4.5 expected assists—suggest his 11 direct returns were slightly ahead of expectation. He should therefore be viewed as a balanced points accumulator rather than a high-ceiling attacker.

Why he may be undervalued: regular minutes, defensive contributions and Leeds’ early schedule could make him a reliable £6.0m squad option.

Key risks: limited underlying goal threat and competition from more attacking midfielders around the same price.

8. Ethan Ampadu: Structural Value Rather Than Attacking Upside

Club: Leeds United
Position: Midfielder
Price: £5.5m
Ownership: approximately 1%
GoalIQAI confidence: 6/10

Ethan Ampadu is unlikely to produce the explosive attacking returns associated with the best FPL midfielders. His value comes from price, minutes and defensive contribution points.

Ampadu started 35 matches and earned 134 points last season despite recording only one goal and four assists. He collected defensive contribution points in more than half of his appearances.

That profile can be useful as a dependable rotation player, particularly if the saving helps fund a premium captain elsewhere.

He should not be selected because 134 points divided by £5.5m produces an attractive historical ratio. The real case is that he may offer a relatively stable stream of appearance and defensive points without using much of the budget.

Why he may be undervalued: defensive contributions create a points route that is easy to overlook when comparing attacking statistics.

Key risks: very limited attacking ceiling and the possibility that changes to Leeds’ system reduce his defensive-action volume.

9. Tyrick Mitchell: The £4.5m Defender with a £5.0m Record

Club: Crystal Palace
Position: Defender
Price: £4.5m
Ownership: approximately 7%
GoalIQAI confidence: 6.5/10

Tyrick Mitchell scored 135 points last season, more than any current £4.5m defender who remained in the Premier League.

He started 36 matches, contributed one goal and three assists and benefited from 12 clean sheets. His attacking numbers were modest, but the combination of price, availability and a potential wing-back role creates structural value.

The most important uncertainty is managerial change. Pierre Sage has replaced Oliver Glasner, and Mitchell’s appeal is stronger if Palace retain a wing-back system.

Palace face Everton, Manchester City and Fulham in their opening three matches before hosting Ipswich. That makes Mitchell more suitable as part of a rotation than an automatic starter every week.

Why he may be undervalued: his price has remained at £4.5m despite producing a total consistent with more expensive defenders.

Key risks: tactical change, limited attacking threat and an uneven opening schedule.

10. Antonin Kinsky: A Potential £4.5m Starting Goalkeeper

Club: Tottenham Hotspur
Position: Goalkeeper
Price: £4.5m
Ownership: approximately 17%
GoalIQAI confidence: 5.5/10

Antonin Kinsky’s value depends almost entirely on whether he begins the season as Tottenham’s first-choice goalkeeper.

Tottenham’s defensive performance improved after Roberto De Zerbi’s appointment late last season, while the additions of Marcos Senesi and Jan Paul van Hecke could strengthen the structure in front of the goalkeeper.

If Kinsky starts regularly for £4.5m, he would provide access to an improving defence at the standard budget-goalkeeper price.

However, his current ownership shows this possibility is no longer hidden. He should be described as potentially underpriced rather than overlooked.

Why he may be undervalued: a confirmed first-choice goalkeeper for an improving Tottenham side would normally be expected to cost more than £4.5m.

Key risks: competition for the position, a limited Premier League sample and uncertainty about whether Tottenham’s late defensive improvement is sustainable.

11. Harry Maguire: Short-Term Fixture Value

Club: Manchester United
Position: Defender
Price: £5.0m
Ownership: approximately 7%
GoalIQAI confidence: 6/10

Manchester United begin against promoted Hull and Ipswich, giving Harry Maguire an unusually favourable opening pair of fixtures.

He was United’s strongest defender for defensive contribution points last season and remains a meaningful set-piece target. That creates potential returns through clean sheets, defensive actions, goals and bonus points.

The question is whether this is genuine season-long value or simply a short-term fixture opportunity. Maguire started only 19 league matches last season, so pre-season team selection matters.

Why he may be undervalued: several routes to points combined with the strongest opening two fixtures in the league.

Key risks: uncertain long-term minutes and a schedule that becomes more difficult after the opening matches.

Popular Players Who May Be Fairly Priced

Erling Haaland: Exceptional but Expensive

Haaland scored 239 points last season and begins 2026/27 at a record £15.5m. His approximately 75% ownership reflects his production, captaincy appeal and early home matches against Bournemouth, Coventry and Sunderland.

He remains capable of being the game’s highest scorer without necessarily being its most undervalued asset. Selecting him requires accepting the opportunity cost elsewhere.

João Pedro: Strong Case, Little Information Advantage

João Pedro recorded 15 goals, nine assists and 177 points last season. His £7.5m price and Chelsea’s opening fixtures make him an understandable selection.

However, ownership above 50% means the market has already identified the opportunity. He may still be good value, but he is not an overlooked one.

Gabriel: Elite Output Has Been Repriced

Gabriel’s 209 points were extraordinary for a defender, supported by 18 clean sheets and contributions at set-pieces.

His price has consequently increased to £8.0m. He may justify that cost, but managers should not assume last season’s points automatically make him better value than David Raya at £6.0m or a cheaper route into Arsenal’s defence.

The GoalIQAI Pre-Season Value Ranking

1. Cole Palmer: strongest combination of reduced price, proven ceiling and supportive underlying data.
2. Dominic Calvert-Lewin: secure role, penalties and strong underlying goal threat at £6.0m.
3. Alexander Isak: potentially significant upside if fitness, starting role and penalties are confirmed.
4. Bukayo Saka: a proven premium option who appears underowned rather than clearly underpriced.
5. Tyrick Mitchell: strong structural value if Palace retain a wing-back system.
6. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall: several routes to points, although some attacking regression is possible.
7. William Osula: substantial upside if his late-season starting role continues.
8. Harry Maguire: an attractive short-term option if his starting place is secure.
9. Anton Stach: balanced output and defensive contributions at a useful price.
10. Ethan Ampadu: a dependable structural enabler rather than an attacking selection.
11. Antonin Kinsky: potentially underpriced, but only if confirmed as Tottenham’s first-choice goalkeeper.

What Still Needs to Be Confirmed Before Gameweek 1?

This is an early market assessment rather than a final squad recommendation. Several pieces of information could materially change the ranking:

• Palmer’s role and penalty responsibility under Xabi Alonso.
• Isak’s fitness, starting status and position in Liverpool’s penalty order.
• Whether Osula remains Newcastle’s first-choice striker.
• Whether Kinsky starts ahead of Tottenham’s other goalkeepers.
• Whether Maguire is part of Manchester United’s preferred defence.
• Whether Crystal Palace continue using Mitchell as a wing-back.
• Any further transfers before the window closes.

Expected minutes are often more important than small differences in expected goals. A theoretically productive player who starts only half the matches can be worse value than a less exciting player with a secure 90-minute role.

GoalIQAI Verdict

Strongest premium value: Cole Palmer.

Strongest budget value: Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

Best low-ownership opportunity: William Osula, conditional on starting regularly.

Best defensive value: Tyrick Mitchell, conditional on Crystal Palace’s tactical shape.

Biggest uncertainty: Alexander Isak. A fit, penalty-taking first-choice Liverpool striker at £9.0m could be substantially underpriced, but that case depends on several assumptions that must still be verified.

The central lesson is that FPL value does not come from chasing last season’s points. It comes from identifying where price has reacted too strongly to disappointing outcomes, too slowly to an improved role or insufficiently to the probability of regular minutes.

This is the same principle used in football recruitment and betting-market analysis: estimate future contribution independently, understand what the market has already priced and remain honest about uncertainty.

Related Guides

• What Is Expected Goals (xG)?
• Shot Maps Explained: How to Read Football Shot Data
• Sample Size in Football Analytics Explained
• Signal vs Noise in Football Data
• Finishing Overperformance Explained
• Recruitment Models vs Betting Models

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